I’ve been trying to figure out how our friends in Las Vegas have decided to anoint the Eagles three-point favorites over the Cardinals on Thursday night.  On paper, I guess it makes sense: teams from the Pacific time zone haven’t won in the Eastern time zone yet this season, and the Cards had a five-hour flight squeezed into a short week.  Under normal circumstances, I could understand the Birds being favorites here.

But, um, well, it sure looks like the Eagles are exploding before our eyes.  Wouldn’t it be nice if the Donovan-and-Andy sideshow of the past two weeks was really just a media-driven kerfuffle, and that the underlying performance of the team really wasn’t so bad?  Yeah.  Not so much.  This is as bad as the Eagles have looked since 2005, sloppy across the board, and distinctly uninterested in showing up for work.  And with Asante Samuel out against the best WR corps the Eagles have yet faced, plus what promises to be an even more feeble running game (hobbled B-West and no Buckhalter), well, it isn’t lining up well for the Birds.

Essentially, tonight feels like it can go one of two ways.  Since I’m only able to envision the future in terms of the past (like most people), all I’ve got for you is comparisons.  The hopeful comparison is the Carolina Monday Night game from 2006, in which the Eagles hung tough against a decent Panthers team and won the game 27-24 in the closing minutes when Lito Sheppard made a play in the corner of the end zone.  Big stage, a lot on the line, about the same point in the season (a week later, but close), and it came on the heels of a horrible road loss to an AFC team (45-21 to the Colts).  That was the play and the win that kicked off the somewhat improbable run to the NFC East title and playoff win that year.

Wouldn’t that be nice?

The Negadelphian comparison would be the Seattle Monday Night game from 2005.  You know, the one in the snow?  That ended 42-0?  That was the last time that the Eagles looked like they were quitting.  I really hope we don’t see that tonight.

Complete sucker that I am, I’m hoping that the Eagles show us something tonight.  I am.  But even in my post-gluttony haze I can’t conjure up the courage to convince myself that the Eagles are going to win tonight.  I’m just not feeling it.  Prediction: Cardinals 31, Eagles 13.

Due the vagaries of out-of-state commitments and air travel scheduling, I won’t be watching the Ravens game live (though I will have it on the DVR).  This might be for the best.  A week after torturing ourselves with five quarters of blah, I can’t imagine many Eagles fans are fired up for this week’s game.  A foul miasma appears to be floating around this team, and it’s really taken the joy out of football season.

A game with the Ravens is probably the last thing the Eagles needed this week.  A tough, physical offense that wants to run the ball?  A highly rated defense that will feast on a weakened Brian Westbrook and a mentally fragile Donovan McNabb?  And the potential indignity of losing a game to a guy, John Harbaugh, that was an employee of the organization for the past 10 years?

Yeah, that doesn’t feel good.

Here’s to hope, then.  Here’s to hoping we see something different this week: some fire, some enthusiasm, some fight.  Here’s to hoping that Donovan McNabb can answer the bell and come up with something special.  Here’s to hoping someone on defense does something scary and psychotic, and puts some fear into the Ravens.

If not, well, the obituaries on the Reid-McNabb era that kicked off this week will grow in both font size and justification.  Those obituaries may be inevitable this season, but I’d prefer if we waited until January for them.

Final score: Eagles 20, Ravens 10.

As I’ve already covered the top-shelf storylines and offered a proposed final score for the Eagles - Giants game tonight, I apologize for the high miscellanea-to-actual-football-content ratio in this post. But it wouldn’t be the Giants game if I didn’t spoil myself a bit. So in addition to the overeating I’m planning for the game tonight (pulled pork that I’ve been slow-cooking for hours, mac and cheese, cole slaw, cocktail weenies, pecan pie — yeah, bad), I’m also treating myself to a bonus game preview/ football Sunday post.

What I’ll be shouting about during tonight’s game (or have already shouted about this afternoon):

Feeling oddly at peace in re: Plax. I’m typically paranoid about Plaxico Burress ahead of Giants games, but this time I’m feeling pretty relaxed about him. Not that he isn’t a great player who seems to enjoy Eagles-killing plays, but I guess I’m just taking it for granted that he’ll score against the Birds. As in, there are plenty of other things to worry about that might not actually happen; it isn’t worth sweating the givens, however disagreeable they may be.

Just to repeat in re: top-shelf storylines. Yup, I’m just as apprehensive in re: the Birds’ ability to handle the Giants at the line of scrimmage as I was yesterday. Just checking in on that.

Early test of the post-Phils afterglow? Now that the Phillies have won, we’re all supposed to be relatively mellow about the other teams for a little bit, right? As in, the Phightins won the World Series, so we all should have a sense of perspective w/r/t the other teams in town. Yup. Looks good on paper, doesn’t it. The Seahawks were a pretty easy landing last weekend, but bringing in the Giants for a primetime game at the Linc just a week later? That’s a cruel, cruel test of the constitution of our Sports Feelings’ Soul. And I wish I could pretend it was one I wasn’t going to fail miserably.

Update your bookmarks. Ugh. Enough with the splash page on the Birds’ official site. That splash page is the Saved By Zero of philadelphiaeagles.com. You want “index2.html” to go straight to the content. Speaking of, they’re pushing extended online coverage of tonight’s game on NFL.com — need to make sure I keep an eye on that.

Speaking of game coverage. The Jets were the Fox early game in New York. That would be the 40-0 at halftime Jets game. Fox stayed with it until halfway through the fourth quarter (it’s the home team, I know, they have to, but still). Yawn. If the NFL was willing to sell me more games, I wouldn’t have flipped the channel to a very exciting MLS game (Allez les RBVs!). Oh well.

Things I’m dreading ahead of the game. Brian Dawkins getting turned around and then run over by a Brandon Jacobs with a bit of momentum. McNabb losing a fumble on a sack. The Eagles throwing eight times in a row in the first quarter. A David Akers miss. Wasted timeouts due to jumpiness in re: blitzes.

Things I’m hopeful about ahead of the game. DeSean Jackson going out of his way to make a big play on national television. A more mobile McNabb extending plays. A stout game from the Eagles’ defensive tackles. A pick from Omar Gaither. Continued heroics from Juqua Parker. Brian Westbrook’s deep personal animosity for the New York Giants manifesting itself in many many touchdowns.

And that’s what I’ve got for you. Off to negotiations with the pulled pork. Go Birds.

The good people over at the Most Valuable Network invited me back to answer some questions about tonight’s big game.  You’re certainly welcome to click over and check it out, but I’ve also pasted the piece below.  It’s a bit high-level, but I worked hard to nerd it up with the Prospect Theory reference:

1. To what extent is the jury still out on this Eagles team, as they head out of the bye at 5-3?

Well I’m not quite sure which jury we’re talking about here, as I think that the Eagles actually have a pretty clear identity for the rest of the league: an above-average team in a tough division with a few important characters (Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, Brian Dawkins) who are familiar…and maybe a little dull at this point. For the team’s fans, the team’s identity is eerily and frustratingly similar to that of last year’s team — occasionally brilliant, just enough to convince you that they might amount to something, but ultimately doomed to fail at the moments that matter most. Apart from the punt returner and a little bit more luck with takeaways, there isn’t much that’s convinced Eagles fans that this isn’t just last year’s 8-8 team all over again.

So I guess said jury actually just checked in, and their answer is “Same as last year; try not to get too excited.” Luckily, the jury also reminded us that the Phils just won the World Series, and so maybe we should have a wee bit more patience with the football team.

2. How would a win this week impact their postseason prospects — and how would a loss impact their playoff positioning, as well?

We’ll dispatch with the “they’re all big game” disclaimers and pleasantries, and note that the Eagles are currently 7th in the NFC, and 3rd in their division — both of which feel extremely fair for the team’s performance to date. The problem with respect to playoff positioning is that the Birds are 0-2 in the NFC East. A loss to the Giants drops them to 0-3, with two of the three remaining division games on the road. Ugh. This scenario might have been slightly more palatable were both the Bucs and Panthers playing very well right now (in Wek Nine, I’ll reluctantly admit that I’m now taking the NFC South seriously) — meaning that it’ll be tough to get a third NFC East team into the playoffs, especially if said team has only a middling conference record.

At the risk of being a complete Negadelphian, I’ll conservatively say that a loss will be a lot more damaging than a win will be helpful. That is, if the Birds win, they’re still in the mix for the division, at least on paper; if they lose, then the residents of the Delaware Valley will need to start worrying about the Tampa Bay from next week on — yikes!

(In defense of my Negadelphianess, a couple guys won the Nobel Prize for proving that people perceive losses as more painful than wins are pleasing, so maybe I’m not completely crazy.)

3. What is the single-biggest key to Sunday’s game for the Eagles, and what is your predicted final score?

In honor of Coach Reid’s midsection, I’m going with the big guys with the unattractive numbers and awkward knee braces. More specifically, line play both ways. The Eagles’ offensive line was humiliated by the Giants last year, and have struggled in certain (namely short-yardage) scenarios this year. They will definitely have quite a few things to worry about with the Giants’ front seven. On defense, the Eagles are stout in the middle of the defensive line but a little smaller to the outside — I expect that they’ll see a lot of Brandon Jacobs to the outside. I guess I could be anxious about the standard skill-position hype (Eli versus Donovan! Plax versus Asante!), but I feel like those matchups are window-dressing; the Eagles will need to stand up to the Giants along the line of scrimmage if they have any hope of winning Sunday night.

I wish I could pick the Eagles in this game. I really do. But I’m not convinced that they’ll be able to handle the Giants at the line. Maybe more importantly, I’m not convinced that the Eagles can get it done in a primetime game — with good reason. Forgive the factoid, but they’ve lost seven night games in a row and 13 of their last 15. That does not inspire confidence. I think the Giants are very confident about handling the Eagles, and that that confidence will carry them in a relatively tight and nervy game: Giants 26, Eagles 20.

(BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Here’s to hoping I’m very very wrong.)

So which Philly sports fan isn’t hungover this morning?

After a crazy late-night ending for the Phightins, the Delaware Valley should be flooded with happy brain chemicals this morning.  I can’t believe that I’m saying this, but the Birds game this afternoon actually feels a bit inconsequential.  I mean, I’m going to leave the comfort of my home to watch it, and I’m sure I’ll get swept up in it once it starts, but, really, I’m definitely preoccupied by the baseball right now.  And I imagine I’m not the only one.

So. Eagles.  Sounds like you have something of a pass this week.  Try not to screw it up.

What I expect to shout about, abbreviated edition:

I hope the Eagles have a Pittsburgh-game-level commitment to defensing the run.  I hope the Birds are excited about  tackling Michael Turner, because they’re going to spend most of the afternoon doing it.  Turner is definitely a fantasy start this week.  The Falcons are silly if they don’t spend the afternoon handing off.

Similarly, I hope Andy Reid indulges himself.  Football Outsiders have the Falcons as 27th against the pass.  No one’s going to complain if McNabb throws the ball 35 times.

Welcome back, Kevin Curtis!  I hope it’s a big day for the Birds’ wideouts, Curtis included.  I hope they don’t just ease him back in — none of us would hate a deep ball to Curtis.

The ostensible best player on the team.  Very curious to see how many snaps Westbrook plays.  Will they take it light with B-West?  Surely his broken ribs plus a strong proof-of-concept from Buckhalter two weeks ago should be encouragement enough to share the carries, no?

Abiamiri watch. They said he was going to play a bit more, and I’m excited to see it.  If they thought this guy was better than Parker, then, well, I’m more than a bit curious.  Wasn’t he supposed to be the big end who could play the run?  The Birds will likely need that today.

It’s probably just the lingering Phillies endorphins talking, but I think the Eagles will win in a game that will feel a lot like the San Francisco game — the Falcons will hang around and create moments of darkness and despair for the good guys.  But I think the Birds will have another big fourth quarter and get it done.  Eagles 30, Falcons 20.

So that makes two weeks in a row of abject horror and frustration for Eagles’ fans.  The last two games, both tough losses, haven’t exactly been delightful samples of NFL entertainment.  We’ve watched our favorite team make crucial mistakes and get pushed around by decent-but-not-great opponents.  We rationalized the loss in week 2 to the Cowboys because we talked ourselves into the Cowboys being sooooo good.  We’re now out of excuses on that front.  The Birds are now in a position where they have to convince us that they are slightly better than mediocre.  And even that is unlikely to be settled this week.

Whatever anxiety you might feel as an Eagles’ fan today, don’t for a second think there’s a scenario where you feel significantly better at 8 pm this evening.  That is, even if the Eagles do emphatically win on the road, what do we know?  That the Eagles can triumph against another middle-of-the-road team?  Super.  Then we have two weeks to think about being 3-3 in the toughest division in the NFL.  And if they lose, well, time to dust off the Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid eulogies.

This is all a long way of saying that very little will be awesome this afternoon or for the next two weeks, and there’s the possibility that things could be really really awful for Eagles fans.  It’s the Kobiyashi Maru.

Everyone got that?  Sound sweet?  Negadelphia eanough for you?  Okay, on to things that’ll make me shout at the TV this afternoon:

What I imagine the Niners will be up to.  On offense?  How about Frank Gore off tackle left.  Followed by Frank Gore off tackle right.  Followed by Frank Gore off tackle left.  Lather rinse repeat.  The Eagles got downright pushed around last week, especially to the outside in the running game.  I imagine that the Niners will try to challenge the Eagles in a similar way.  And man do I hope that the Birds are up to stopping them.

What I hope the Eagles will be up to.  Throw it to number 10.  Run it with number 10.  Get him deep.  Run wide-receiver screens.  I’m shocked that a rookie is far and away the Birds’ most threatening player at this point, but he is.  And he’s got a bit of a homecoming thing happening here (played college ball across the bay) — let him show the locals that he’s a baller.  Sure, he might do something stupid, but that’s the rookie tax, and given the dearth of actual playmakers who made the trip, I think we’re all willing to pay it.

25?  Have a seat next to 37.  Fingers crossed that the Klecko-to-fullback move actually means Hunt-to-tailback which actually means Booker-to-bench.  Booker isn’t a lost cause quite yet, but it’s too early to expect much from him.  We’ll all feel better (especially 5) if he doesn’t see too many snaps.

Will Curtis play?  I would assume Curtis’ participation will be similar to Reggie Brown’s first week back — he’ll be out there, might see a ball or two, but we can’t expect fireworks.  Now’s definitely the moment to snag him in your imaginary football leagues though.

Does LJ read PFT?  So the Birds are interested in Tony Gonzalez?  How you feeling about that contract extension, LJ?

The defense is officially on the hook this week.  Shame on us all for focusing on the offense this week.  The Birds need their defense to play well if they’re going to win against the Niners.  We should assume a mediocre showing from the offense — they’re missing a bunch of starters.  The defense?  Nope.  They look pretty healthy.  This team needs help, and the defense was humiliated by the Redskins last week.   Sooo, Trent Cole, Asante Samuel, and other defensive players whose jerseys get sold?  Time to participate in the culture of accountability!

Obligatory David Akers non-excuse.  Dude, we do NOT want to hear about how windy it is out in San Francisco.  Seriously.  I’m mentioning this in advance.

A humble request.  Can the kickoff return team make a play?  Being in the stadium last week I finally got to see what the return team was up to, and it wasn’t very impressive.  Blocking was beat, and Demps seemed content to barrel into the back of the pile.  It’d be nice to start a drive beyond the 25-yard line.

And the score?  I’m a sucker.  A total sucker.  I actually believe that the Eagles can tough this out.  I think they’ll need some sort of Donovan McNabb scramble on a big play in the fourth quarter to seal it, but I think they get it done (ever so barely): Eagles 26, 49ers 22.

Go Birds.

FINALLY FINALLY FINALLY. 

Football.  

I’m headed to Hoboken for the game and look forward to making some noise with the crew.  What I’ll be shouting at the TV about:

Not to start with a negative, but spare us the obligatory drive-killing false start penalty on third down in the first quarter.  Seriously.  Those are totally beat.

And to get the other negative out of the way, the timeouts in the first quarter just kill me.  Seriously.  Also beat.  Please skip. 

I’m totally fired up to see the rookies on returns.  Can’t remember the last time I was even vaguely excited for our return game.  Maybe J.R. Reed (Westbrook cameos don’t count).  I’m actually more curious about Demps than I am Jackson.  I feel like I’ve seen enough of Jackson running around to understand what he’s bringing.  Demps is still something of a mystery. 

Speaking of DeSean Jackson.  Geez, the hype machine for the camelcased one is really cranking at full power, no?  I was expecting to scoop the kid up in all of my imaginary football leagues; nope, he got taken relatively early in all of them.  Was there some sort of fantasy-nerd special bulletin distributed on the topic?  I mean, I think he’ll get his shots, but WOW, this is still a rookie, right?    

The Rams have to be eight in the box/ all-eyes-on-36, right?  I wonder who else will get it done for the Birds?  Because the Rams have to be game-planning almost exclusively for Westbrook.  Someone else might have to score some imaginary football points this week!      

Fear the wet field!  I hope there aren’t any otherwise preventable injuries due to the condition of the field.  Also, if the Eagles are supposed to be “fast” on defense, then a wet field will neutralize them more?  Or something?  Whatever, the Rams are a dome team.  They’ll hate it out there.

Three things that will make me irrationally happy: (1) deep ball from McNabb to anyone (though something to Jackson would bring the house down) — I just hope they take a shot down the field; (2) sack from one of the young linebackers, Gocong would be best; (3) Lito Sheppard gets a pick — it just means that incentives are properly aligned. 

Moment of lightning-dodging confidence: I think the Eagles scheduled a Championship Subdivision cupcake opponent for the home opener.  They come correct to the tune of 27-10.

My freakin jersey didn’t get here in time.  BOOOOOO.